VOICE
VOICE (VOlcanic eruptions and their Impact on Climate, Ecosystems & Socio-Economy) - International Academic Chair
The VOICES international Academic chair (“Volcanic Eruptions and their Impact on Climate, Ecosystems & Socio-Economy”) aims to anticipate the systemic impacts of a future major explosive volcanic eruption within a context of global climate disruption. The project brings together an interdisciplinary consortium spanning volcanology, atmospheric chemistry-climate modelling, ecological experiments, biodiversity analysis and macro-economic modelling.
Research activities are structured around four Work Packages:
- WP1 – Volcanology: quantification of volcanic gases and reconstruction of past major events;
- WP2 – Atmosphere: climate–chemistry–aerosol modelling (SOCOL-AERv2);
- WP3 – Biodiversity: experiments, modelling and retrospective analyses;
- WP4 – Socio-Economy: macroeconomic and policy analysis of large-scale volcanic shocks.
Co-leaders: Patrick Schembri (CEARC – UVSQ, University of Paris-Saclay) & Anita Cadoux (Harvard University, GEOPS-University of Paris-Saclay).
Scientific partner institutions: Harvard University, GEOPS, CEARC–UVSQ, University of Tours, Senckenberg, INRAE
Objectives of Work Package 4: “Socio-Economy”
Coordinator: CEARC - UVSQ
WP4 investigates the socio-economic impacts of a large volcanic eruption in a future climate. Building on atmospheric (WP2) and ecological (WP3) outputs, it develops a dynamic macroeconomic model designed to assess:
1. Global climate shocks
- Surface cooling, radiative perturbations, agricultural yield shocks and ecological disruptions
2. Biophysical impacts on productive systems
- Biodiversity loss and ecosystem service decline
- Bioclimatic stress and UV/temperature-related damages
3. Macroeconomic consequences
- Economic activity, production and supply-chain disturbances
- Income distribution, social vulnerabilities and labour impacts
- Public finance and macro-financial stability under stress
4. Implications for climate policy
- Adjustments in mitigation strategies (carbon pricing, abatement costs)
- Adaptation needs and systemic risk governance
Methodological Approach
WP4 relies on an integrated analytical structure combining:
- Dynamic stock-flow macroeconomic modelling (climate-biodiversity-economy interactions) ;
- Systemic analytical framework ;
- Coupling of climatic and ecological outputs to economic variables ;
- Scenario-based explorations (VEI6–7 eruptions, future SSP atmospheres) ;
- Sensitivity analyses and extreme-risk exploration.
Expected Outcomes
- Quantitative assessment of the socio-economic impacts of major future volcanic eruptions.
- Integrated climate–biodiversity–economy scenarios.
- Insights on systemic risks and economic resilience.
- Decision-support tools for climate and risk-management policies.
- Contributions to international assessment frameworks (IPCC, IPBES).
Involved members:
- Mateo Cordier
- Katia Radja
- Patrick Schembri (co-leader)
