PREVENT

The ANR PREVENT project (Predicting the evolution and biological impact of the oceanic exposome during the environmental transition), aims to anticipate the future evolution of the oceanic exposome under climate change. It integrates experimental approaches, biogeochemical observations, modelling tools, and social sciences to assess long-term risks for marine ecosystems.

The project is coordinated by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement) and brings together a multidisciplinary consortium including: IRD, CNRS, Sorbonne University, CEARC, LOPS, LOV, MARBEC, and LISIS.

Objectives of Work Package 3: “Futures, Impacts & Governance”

WP3, coordinated by CEARC (modelling and multilevel governance) and LISIS (stakeholders Forum), mobilizes macroeconomic modelling, environmental foresight and policy analysis. Its aim is to integrate results from WP1 and WP2 into a systemic exploration of possible future trajectories for the oceanic exposome.

1. Macroeconomic Modelling and Emission Pathways

  • Construction of emission trajectories based on SSP/IPCC scenarios.
  • Analysis of socio-economic dynamics shaping future pressures on the ocean.
  • Integration of climate policies and energy transition pathways into long-term modelling.

2. Future Impacts on Marine Biodiversity

WP3 projects biogeochemical and ecotoxicological outputs from the project’s models onto integrated impacts for key marine species including tropical tunas. These marine species are central to PREVENT models and allow assessment of how contaminants (mercury, plastics, lithium) and climate change interact to affect marine ecosystems.

3. Multi-Level Governance and Regulatory Instruments

  • Assessment of institutional frameworks from global to local scales.
  • Comparative analysis of regulations on mercury, plastics and lithium.
  • Identification of robust governance strategies adapted to future trajectories.
  • Contribution to policy-support tools for decision-makers.
 

Methodological Approach

WP3 relies on:

  • Integrated macroeconomic and ecological modelling;
  • Scenario-based foresight and sensitivity analyses;
  • Institutional and comparative governance analysis;
  • Interfacing biogeochemical, ecotoxicological and socio-economic modelling frameworks.
 

Expected Outcomes

  • Integrated scenarios combining economic, biological and contaminant dynamics.
  • Assessment of future risks to key marine species.
  • Identification of governance strategies effective under multiple future conditions.
  • Production of synthesis reports, interactive tools and policy recommendations.

 

Involved members:

  • Arnault Barichella
  • Julie Bulteau
  • Mateo Cordier
  • Victor Doro
  • Katia Radja
  • Patrick Schembri (coordinator of WP3)

 

Website: https://prevent.lsce.ipsl.fr